Friday 24 April 2015

We haven't a clue - GE 2015

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
22–23 AprYouGov/The Sun1,83433%35%8%13%6%6%2%
22–23 AprSurvation/Daily Mirror1,20533%29%10%18%4%6%4%
21–23 AprPanelbase1,01231%34%7%17%4%7%3%
21–22 AprComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail1,00336%32%8%10%5%9%4%
21–22 AprYouGov/The Sun2,06033%34%7%14%5%6%1%
20–21 AprYouGov/The Sun1,79935%34%7%13%5%6%1%
19–20 AprYouGov/The Sun2,07834%35%7%13%5%6%1%
16–20 AprTNS1,19932%34%8%15%5%6%2%
18–19 AprYouGov/The Sun1,67534%35%8%13%5%6%1%
17–19 AprLord Ashcroft1,00234%30%10%13%4%9%4%
17–19 AprPopulus2,04832%34%9%15%4%6%2%
17–19 AprICM/The Guardian1,00334%32%10%11%5%8%2%
17–18 AprYouGov/Sunday Times1,78033%36%8%13%5%5%3%
16–17 AprOpinium/The Observer1,95536%32%8%13%5%6%4%
16–17 AprYouGov/The Sun1,71334%34%9%14%5%5%Tied
16–17 AprSurvation/Daily Mirror1,31434%33%7%17%3%6%1%
16 AprFive-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One
Judging by the above national opinion polls it really is too close to call. Add into the mix the chaos caused by the SNP, UKIP, constituency bias etc and we have little clue as to the details of the outcome other than the general one - a hung Parliament of some sort is likely.

The next 12 months could see yet another general election, the Grexit, another Scottish referendum (certainly way more devolvement), a fractious Parliament and the regions starting to get a voice too. The centre, i.e. The Westminster and Whitehall way of doing things is under threat. Not necessarily a bad thing but it may make it harder to deal with increasing international headwinds.

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