Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
22–23 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,834 | 33% | 35% | 8% | 13% | 6% | 6% | 2% |
22–23 Apr | Survation/Daily Mirror | 1,205 | 33% | 29% | 10% | 18% | 4% | 6% | 4% |
21–23 Apr | Panelbase | 1,012 | 31% | 34% | 7% | 17% | 4% | 7% | 3% |
21–22 Apr | ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail | 1,003 | 36% | 32% | 8% | 10% | 5% | 9% | 4% |
21–22 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 2,060 | 33% | 34% | 7% | 14% | 5% | 6% | 1% |
20–21 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,799 | 35% | 34% | 7% | 13% | 5% | 6% | 1% |
19–20 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 2,078 | 34% | 35% | 7% | 13% | 5% | 6% | 1% |
16–20 Apr | TNS | 1,199 | 32% | 34% | 8% | 15% | 5% | 6% | 2% |
18–19 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,675 | 34% | 35% | 8% | 13% | 5% | 6% | 1% |
17–19 Apr | Lord Ashcroft | 1,002 | 34% | 30% | 10% | 13% | 4% | 9% | 4% |
17–19 Apr | Populus | 2,048 | 32% | 34% | 9% | 15% | 4% | 6% | 2% |
17–19 Apr | ICM/The Guardian | 1,003 | 34% | 32% | 10% | 11% | 5% | 8% | 2% |
17–18 Apr | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,780 | 33% | 36% | 8% | 13% | 5% | 5% | 3% |
16–17 Apr | Opinium/The Observer | 1,955 | 36% | 32% | 8% | 13% | 5% | 6% | 4% |
16–17 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,713 | 34% | 34% | 9% | 14% | 5% | 5% | Tied |
16–17 Apr | Survation/Daily Mirror | 1,314 | 34% | 33% | 7% | 17% | 3% | 6% | 1% |
16 Apr | Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One |
Judging by the above national opinion polls it really is too close to call. Add into the mix the chaos caused by the SNP, UKIP, constituency bias etc and we have little clue as to the details of the outcome other than the general one - a hung Parliament of some sort is likely.
The next 12 months could see yet another general election, the Grexit, another Scottish referendum (certainly way more devolvement), a fractious Parliament and the regions starting to get a voice too. The centre, i.e. The Westminster and Whitehall way of doing things is under threat. Not necessarily a bad thing but it may make it harder to deal with increasing international headwinds.
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