Sunday Service - The rise and rise of UKIP

It's their spring conference this weekend and boy do they have a lot to celebrate. They are beginning to win local council seats which is a decent sign of progress in the first past the post world.


More importantly they are doing well in recent by elections such as Eastleigh where they came a close second and put the Tories in third. UKIP have also now polled consistently well for say about a year. They are on a par if not above the Lib Dems, maybe averaging 10% in polling.

And on it goes as they get more media coverage (eg today they are in the Times, Telegraph, BBC online etc as mainstream articles), get an audience with Rupert Murdoch and have the future on their side.

By that I mean they have the May local elections mid way through an increasingly struggling coalition Government. The ingredients for a perfect protest vote. Indeed Nigel Farage hopes that the party is now more than a protest vote or ex Tory party. He believes there is strong evidence they have picked up plenty of Lib Dem, Labour and non voters too.

Following the May elections come the Euro elections next year. This is obviously UKIP home turf really as they already have a number of MEPS, Europe is in turmoil and their principal reason for existing is to get out of Europe. In addition it's not a first past the post system which helps them enormously. They may well just about finish top of the pile if if if...

If they can keep the momentum rolling and ride the wave then it could be an incredible next 12 months for them. Certainly over the last 12 months their membership has apparently flourished, they are improving their professional organisation and standing in more and more areas. They wish to stand in all seats at the next general election.

So the rise of UKIP has occurred. Will they fall flat as a pancake or will they continue to flourish over the next year. We shall see.

One final point - UKIP are still dominated by Farage, who is very good on the media and seemingly everywhere. However they need to get others in the firing line and in the meantime hope Farage stays well. Plus they can expect their policies to be attacked but I don't think that will get Labour or the Tories far.

I think UKIP at present are on the rise because they are not one of the main parties and UKIPs rhetoric chimes much more closely with those outside Westminster village and the media.