Political Betting: EU Referendum wording

We now have the actual wording of the referendum question

“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union”

As expected the wording of the EU referendum question makes remaining in the EU the YES option while leaving the NO one.

There’s a view that people prefer to vote Yes to things than be negative and the planned wording therefore favours staying in the EU. I’m not so convinced. The last two big referendums, AV in 2011 and the IndyRef in Scotland, both saw No sides win.

What will be interesting is how the question plays out in the polls. The latest finding by YouGov last weekend had the wording “Do you think that the UK should be a member of the European Union?”

This was neutral in relation to the status quo and had Yes 12% ahead.

We don’t know yet about timing though reports overnight suggest that the government is aiming for May next year when the devolved government elections in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland take place. There is also the London Mayoral election.

Source: Mike Smithson - Political Betting website

Well David Cameron is off on a flying tour of Europe as he starts to convince people of a need for change. I think he has a difficult task but it's made easier by the above and by the fact we aren't sure what he wants (what is the negotiating platform?) and aren't sure what we ourselves want.

 

Currently the feeling is a referendum in 2016 would lead to Britain remaining in as there wouldn't be enough time for the Brexit people to organise etc etc. I just don't think it's as simple as framing the question as above, getting a few minor concessions and selling it as great change in a quick referendum in 2016. There is too much going on in the rest of the EU and I don't think people will be fobbed off easily.

 

However at this early stage the odds are seemingly against Brexit. Suddenly people who have spent decades asking for a vote on the EU have it and they may not be ready for it.

 

There does need to be a vote. That much is clear to me. The rest is going to get murky and mucky which will fascinate us political anoraks.

 

The stakes are high but overturning the status quo would be tough.