The Euro Elections

The above UKIP logo says it all really. They have dominated the main stream media, especially the dead tree press.

To see the wholesale attack on UKIP by the three mainstream parties along with the Times, Sun etc has been incredible. It may well do its job in denting the UKIP vote at the last minute. But postal voting may limit its extent as most people who will vote have already voted.

Surely the European elections should be more than just slaughtering UKIP. Yet I struggle to recall any big policy debates that have had resonance.

The debate has been very very simple and very brutal. Are you pro European or not? with the Tories offering a third way of a referendum in 2017, assuming they are in Government and after a renegotiation.

UKIP's exists to leave Europe, so on that it is clear. The Liberal Democrats, via Nick Clegg have been unashamedly pro EU. They say they would have a referendum on any big EU changes in the future as was set up by legislation in this Parliament, but otherwise love Europe.

I have no idea what Labours position is. Ed, not quite human, Miliband seems to want to be in Europe but if there are changes in future to have a referendum on them. Ie like the Lib Dems, except that quite a lot of Labour MP's seem to have a different view, including Ed Balls.

Will "cast iron" Dave's Conservatives prevail? Well he's promising the same as the last elections, namely a referendum in the future. I think people will be more sceptical this time but the Tories may do better than expected.

Labour should be cruising to victory, but aren't. I don't think any opposition party has won a general election without winning the Euro elections too. Ed Miliband just isn't a leader is he? Would you follow him over the top - no. In addition the Labour Party in conjunction with the other big parties have failed to talk about immigration sensibly. It's a tricky subject and they would prefer to avoid it. However it does resonate massively with voters and UKIP's point that the free movement of labour in the EU, while it was a fundamental principle, may have had its time is being heard particularly by those on low wages.

The other two big things that stand out are how little people care and how much the anti EU vote across Europe is likely to hugely rise.

The expected average turnout for the EU election is around 40%, and that's even with some countries compulsory voting. The EU institutions are going to have to adapt to survive otherwise even Angela Merkel thinks they have had it, along with some countries. Her favourite stats are these:-

European Union countries have 7% of the world's population, 25% of global output and 50% of its social spending.

It's only a part of the EU countries troubles but a big one. For the institutions they need to address the democratic element and stop with so many regulations - now over 150,000 pages of it from them, before nations states own stuff!

I know the Euro elections will not really engage most people but I will be fascinated to see the results. It may well be very close between Labour, Tories and UKIP. God help the Lib Dems as it won't be good for them.